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“The Emergence of Stable Political Choices from Incomplete Political Preferences”
“Measuring Attitudes towards Public Spending using a Multivariate Tax Summary Experiment ”
“Inferring Individual Preferences from Group Decisions: Judicial Preference Variation and Aggregation in Asylum Appeals”
“A Choice-Based Measure of Issue Importance in the Electorate”, forthcoming American Journal of Political Science
“Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK”, International Journal of Forecasting
“Republican-Majority Appellate Panels Increase Execution Rates for Capital Defendants”, forthcoming Journal of Politics
“Which outcome to the Article 50 process do the British people want?”
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“Decomposing Public Opinion Variation into Ideology, Idiosyncrasy and Instability”, Journal of Politics
“Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste”, Journal of Politics

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1 June 2023

I have just completed a 3.75 year tenure as an associate editor of the American Political Science Review. Over that time, as one of six associate editors, I have managed the review process for 742 manuscripts, about 200 per year. Here are some departing thoughts on the job in no particular order and with no overarching thesis. I wish the new editorial team well. Being an editor is a constant, low-level source of stress.

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飞机加速 vp

17 December 2023

The slide deck linked below reports an initial performance review for the YouGov MRP model of the 2023 UK general election. As I noted in a series of tweets the day after the election the overall performance was mixed. The headline Conservative seat prediction was too low (339 vs 365), but on many other metrics the model performed well, capturing many important features of how party vote shares changed across UK constituencies versus the previous election in 2017.